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1.
We propose an ensemble of long–short‐term memory (LSTM) neural networks for intraday stock predictions, using a large variety of technical analysis indicators as network inputs. The proposed ensemble operates in an online way, weighting the individual models proportionally to their recent performance, which allows us to deal with possible nonstationarities in an innovative way. The performance of the models is measured by area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic. We evaluate the predictive power of our model on several US large‐cap stocks and benchmark it against lasso and ridge logistic classifiers. The proposed model is found to perform better than the benchmark models or equally weighted ensembles. 相似文献
2.
Dynamic Model Averaging and CPI Inflation Forecasts: A Comparison between the Euro Area and the United States 下载免费PDF全文
Gabriele Di Filippo 《Journal of forecasting》2015,34(8):619-648
The paper forecasts consumer price inflation in the euro area (EA) and in the USA between 1980:Q1 and 2012:Q4 based on a large set of predictors, with dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS). DMA/DMS allows not solely for coefficients to change over time, but also for changes in the entire forecasting model over time. DMA/DMS provides on average the best inflation forecasts with regard to alternative approaches (such as the random walk). DMS outperforms DMA. These results are robust for different sample periods and for various forecast horizons. The paper highlights common features between the USA and the EA. First, two groups of predictors forecast inflation: temporary fundamentals that have a frequent impact on inflation but only for short time periods; and persistent fundamentals whose switches are less frequent over time. Second, the importance of some variables (particularly international food commodity prices, house prices and oil prices) as predictors for consumer price index inflation increases when such variables experience large shocks. The paper also shows that significant differences prevail in the forecasting models between the USA and the EA. Such differences can be explained by the structure of these respective economies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Henrik Amilon 《Journal of forecasting》2003,22(4):317-335
An Erratum has been published for this article in Journal of Forecasting 22(6‐7) 2003, 551 The Black–Scholes formula is a well‐known model for pricing and hedging derivative securities. It relies, however, on several highly questionable assumptions. This paper examines whether a neural network (MLP) can be used to find a call option pricing formula better corresponding to market prices and the properties of the underlying asset than the Black–Scholes formula. The neural network method is applied to the out‐of‐sample pricing and delta‐hedging of daily Swedish stock index call options from 1997 to 1999. The relevance of a hedge‐analysis is stressed further in this paper. As benchmarks, the Black–Scholes model with historical and implied volatility estimates are used. Comparisons reveal that the neural network models outperform the benchmarks both in pricing and hedging performances. A moving block bootstrap is used to test the statistical significance of the results. Although the neural networks are superior, the results are sometimes insignificant at the 5% level. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
白士强 《科技情报开发与经济》2004,14(9):230-231
阐述了股票期权及股份期权的含义与区别,说明了股份期权激励在民营企业实施的意义和前景,结合我国民营企业所处的环境及企业发展状况,提出了我国民营企业实施股份期权制度的若干策略。 相似文献
5.
Minggao XUE Pu GONG 《系统科学与复杂性》2006,19(4):547-557
This article analyzes R & D investment decisions in an asymmetrical case. The investment decisions share three important characteristics. First, the investment is completely irreversible. Second, there are two kinds of uncertainties over the future returns from the investment and over technology in R & D process, respectively. Third, there is strategic competition in the asymmetrical case. This article presents the optimal investment threshold values and the optimal investment rule of high-efficient firm (leader), and shows that the investment threshold values are reduced by competition of two firms. Finally, the mixed investment strategies for two firms, the probability that each firm separately exercises the option to invest, and the probability that two firms simultaneously exercise the option are given in the paper. 相似文献
6.
分析了高新技术企业特点,说明了传统的企业价值评估方法不能应用于对高新技术企业的评估。如果把高新技术企业投资看成是为了获得一个未来取得现金流的机会,高新技术企业具有期权性质,就可以用期权理论及Black-Scholes模型评估高新企业的价值。 相似文献
7.
在假定股票价格服从Ito过程条件下,讨论了采用组合期权交易策略的投资者获益的概率及损益的数学期望,得到了具体计算式,只要投资者获得相应数据,通过具体计算式加以计算,便可以为期权投资者提供数量上的重要参考依据,对期权投资者具有实用价值。 相似文献
8.
汉语中某些词语除了具有表面显现的反映义以外,还有隐含在使用上的某些特殊要求和含义。词语的隐义在其使用中表现为感情褒贬的不同,使用范围及语义轻重的差异,搭配上对词语的限定等。 相似文献
9.
陈创新 《中山大学学报(自然科学版)》2005,44(6):45-48
提出了一种新的线性混叠信号的盲分离算法,该算法利用信号相互独立时其协方差矩阵的对角化特征作为分离准则,采用最速下降法进行分离.该算法对源信号和混叠矩阵没有过多要求且计算量不大,理论分析与仿真结果表明:该算法具有很好的分离效果. 相似文献
10.